The latest mortgage information shows that interest rates were up slightly this past week.  Still very affordable rates.  They remain at near historic lows.  Here’s what’s driving our rates as shared with us by Paul Soule, Senior Mortgage Advisor with PHH Home Loans in Ocean City, Maryland.

March 24, 2011

Inflation Concerns Hurts Bond Demand

Freddie Mac’s latest survey reports a slight increase in mortgage rates this week. Concerns about inflation and political unrest drove investors away from bonds, pushing prices down and rates higher.

This week, the 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) edged up to an average 4.81 percent , compared to last week when it was at 4.76 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.99 percent.

The 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.04 percent, up from last week when it averaged 3.97 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.34 percent.

The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid ARM also moved higher,  averaging 3.62 percent this week, compared to last week when it averaged 3.57 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM stood at 4.14 percent.

Similarly, the 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM rose to an average 3.21 percent, up from last week when it averaged 3.17 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.2 percent.

Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, cited inflation as a leading cause for the increases, explaining, “Mortgage rates were up this week compared to last, but still remain at relatively low levels. The rate uptick was related to higher than anticipated inflation data for February and ongoing geopolitical concerns. The 12-month growth rate in the consumer price index rose 2.1 percent in February, compared to 1.6 percent in January; however, most of the increase was due to food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile. The core index rose 1.1 percent, slightly up from 1.0 percent in January. “

Nothaft also commented on the broader housing picture. He said, “The housing market recovery experienced a setback during the start of this year. Existing home sales fell 9.6 percent from January to February and were down 2.8 percent from February 2010.  Sales of new homes declined for the second consecutive month in February to record lows dating back to 1963. Even new construction on one-family homes fell 11.8 percent in February to the third slowest pace since 1959.”

Thirty-Year Back to 5 Percent

Freddie Mac’s latest survey reports longer-term rates eased a bit this week as was expected when Treasury yields fell slightly.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.0 percent for the week, down from last week when it averaged 5.05 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.93 percent.

The 15-year FRM also eased this week, averaging 4.27 percent compared to last week when it averaged 4.29 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM was at 4.33 percent.

The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid ARM averaged 3.87 percent this week,  down from last week when it averaged 3.92 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.12 percent.

The 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM bucked the trend, averaging 3.39 percent this week, up from last week when it averaged 3.35 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.23 percent.

Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, commented on the current rate picture and the housing market. He said, “Fixed mortgage rates eased slightly this week and continue to be very affordable. Prior to 2009, interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages had never been at 5 percent since our survey began in April 1971. In both 1981 and 1982, the rates were over three times as high as they are today.”

Nothaft added, “The housing market is struggling to regain traction despite still historically low rates. New construction on one-family homes dipped slightly in January to an annualized pace of 413,000 units, which was the fewest number since May 2009. In addition, homebuilder confidence didn’t improve for the third consecutive month in February and remains near record lows, according the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index”

Thx again to Paul Soule from Coldwell Banker Home Loans.

Don’t foreclose! Do a short sale

Short sales are the hottest thing going in the distressed-property market, and the trend is expected to get even hotter in coming weeks, when the government starts handing out cash to encourage lenders to close these deals.

“Banks have ramped up short sale approvals,” said Duane Legate of House Buyer Network, which connects short sellers with buyers. “They’re hiring a lot of the people who once worked in the mortgage-lending industry and moved them over to short sales.”

These transactions, where lenders allow homeowners to sell their houses for less than they owe, accounted for 17% of all residential real estate sales in February, up from nearly 13% in November, according to a monthly real estate market survey by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance.

And Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), the country’s largest mortgage servicer, has more than doubled the number of short sales it processed in recent months.

Elizabeth Weintraub, a Sacramento, Calif.-area real estate agent who handles many short sales, was amazed at how quickly a recent deal went through. “Bank of America approved it in 24 days,” she said. “That flipped me out.”

This is a huge change from even just six months ago when the short-sale market was stalled and most people would describe the process has real estate hell. Because lenders stand to lose so much on these transactions, they have been reluctant to make short sales happen, often waiting months before getting back to potential buyers.

Beware: You lost your house but still have to pay….
“In the past, many short sales would never come to fruition and the ones that did averaged over half a year to complete,” said Chris Saitta, CEO of Equator, which produces short sale software.

“Things would just fall into a black hole and not come out again,” added Weintraub.

And even when banks did agree to the sale, the process could be further complicated if the original owner had a second mortgage.

In most cases, the first lender is repaid in full before any money flows to a second-lein holder. And because most distressed borrowers are severely underwater, there’s usually nothing left to send on. As a result, second-lein holders are left holding the bag and have been killing many deals.

But that has been changing. For one thing, banks realize that they make out far better financially with a short sale than a foreclosure. “The lenders lose 50% on a foreclosure and only 30% on a short sale,” said Glenn Kelman, founder of the real estate Web site Redfin. “And short sales offer a way to get distressed properties off their books quickly.”

And on April 5, lenders and mortgage investors will have even more incentives to offer troubled borrowers short sales instead of foreclosing.

Under the new Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program, borrowers will earn a $3,000 “relocation incentive” and servicers will get $1,500 for handling a short sale.

The investors who actually own the mortgage notes will get $2,000 in exchange for sharing proceeds of the short sales with any second-lien holders. And, finally, those second lien holders will receive up to $6,000 for releasing their claims.

Lenders participating in the program must also determine the market values of properties early on and inform the owners of just what price they’re willing to accept. Then, if owners come back to the lenders with bonafide offers, they have to be accepted within 10 days.

Equator’s Saiita anticipates a short sale explosion in response to the new program. “The challenge will be handling all the volume,” he said.

The company has already tweaked its software, which 58 servicers use, to handle the new HAFA rules. And that should help reduce the time it takes to execute a sale, which currently averages 88 days.

The boom in short sales may accelerate the end to the foreclosure crisis by cleaning out the overhang of borrowers in distress and replacing them with more stable homeowners.

Plus, these sales are better for distressed borrowers because their credit scores suffer less. Going through a foreclosure can knock 200 points off a FICO score, twice as much as the penalty for a short sale.

Re-Print of Article from CNN Money.com

Mortgage Rates Seen Below 6% Through 2010

Even as mortgage rates remain near record lows, the Mortgage Bankers Association believes that the looming expiration of a key Federal Reserve program may increase home loan costs next year. Still, the MBA expects rates to remain extremely attractive throughout 2010, helping to juice home sales and insert a floor underneath real estate values. Here are five things you need to know about the MBA’s 2010 economic outlook:

1. Opposing forces: The MBA expects subdued inflation and high unemployment to put downward pressure on 30-year fixed mortgage rates next year. However, “there is a lot of uncertainty regarding rates immediately following the termination of the Federal Reserve’s purchase of mortgage-backed securities,” Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s chief economist and senior vice president for research and economics.  “No doubt the Fed will do its best to minimize adverse effects, but the elimination of these purchases will put upward pressure on all long-term rates as well as the spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries.”

2. Fed programs and rates: The Federal Reserve got into the business of driving down mortgage rates in November of 2008 as it scrambled to stabilize the free-falling housing market. To that end, it announced plans to buy up debt and mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In March of this year, it expanded the program to include the purchase of long-term treasury bonds and additional Fannie and Freddie assets. This asset purchase program is a key reason why rates have remained so attractive for nearly a year. Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, says the program has brought rates roughly a full percentage point lower than they would be otherwise.

3. Getting out: But as the housing market shows signs of stabilization, the Fed is looking to unwind some of this support. Its treasury-bond purchase program, for example, is expected to conclude by the end of the month. However, in the absence of a private market for mortgage-backed securities, the Fed moved in late September to extend its program for buying up these assets. Without committing additional funds to the initiative, the Fed said it will continue buying up debt and mortgage-backed securities from Fannie and Freddie through the first quarter of 2010. (The program had been scheduled to expire at the end of the year.) By remaining in the market, the Fed can help ensure that rates remain in an attractive range for a longer period of time. And rather than risk sharply higher mortgage rates, the Fed may extend the program again, depending on how the economy and housing markets perform in the coming months.

4. Less than 6 percent: While acknowledging that the expiration of this program is likely to push rates higher, the MBA expects rates to remain in an attractive range in 2010. Fixed mortgage rates will average around 5 percent in the final quarter of this year and rise to 5.6 percent by the end of 2010, the MBA predicts.

5. Sales and prices: The MBA predicts the unemployment rate will peak at 10.2 percent in the second quarter of next year. Nevertheless, the trade group expects to see an increase in home buying activity next year, with exiting-home sales up 11 percent from 2009 levels and new-home sales increasing 21 percent. In addition, “[national] average home price declines should abate by early 2010, but will vary by state and home value,” the MBA said in its press release. “The demand will be highest for entry-level homes.”

Mortgage Rates This Week – Relatively Unchanged

NATIONAL RATE SURVEY RESULTS (10/29/2009 Results)

30-year Conv:          5.35% -- w/ avg. points: 0.37 pts

15-year Conv:          4.74% -- w/ avg. points: 0.37 pts

30-year FHA:           5.27% -- w/ avg. points: 0.17 pts

5-year ARM:            4.64% -- w/ avg. points: 0.37 pts

PHH DAILY RATE CHANGES – LAST 10 BUSINESS DAYS

Date                      Conventional                           FHA                                      VA                                        

10/29                     Relatively Unchanged             Relatively Unchanged            Relatively Unchanged                      

10 Year Treasury Yield opens at 3.42

10/28                     Slightly Lower                        Relatively Unchanged            Relatively Unchanged                       

10 Year Treasury Yield closed at 3.41

10/28 (2)                Lower                                    Slightly Lower                       Slightly Lower                                     

Rate Change for the Better!

10/27                     Relatively Unchanged             Relatively Unchanged            Relatively Unchanged                       

10 Year Treasury Yield closed at 3.46

10/27 (2)                Lower                                     Lower                                   Lower               

Rate Change for the Better!

10/26                     Relatively Unchanged             Relatively Unchanged            Relatively Unchanged                       

10 Year Treasury Yield closed at 3.55

10/26 (2)                Slightly Higher                       Slightly Higher                       Slightly Higher  

Rate Change for the Worse.

10/23                     Slightly Higher                       Relatively Unchanged            Relatively Unchanged                       

10 Year Treasury Yield closed at 3.47

10/22                     Relatively Unchanged             Slightly Higher                      Relatively Unchanged                       

10 Year Treasury Yield closed at 3.42

10/21                     Higher                                     Slightly Higher                      Slightly Higher                                       

10 Year Treasury Yield closes at 3.41

10/20                     Lower                                      Lower                                   Lower               

10 Year Treasury Yield closes at 3.34

10/19                     Relatively Unchanged             Slightly Higher                      Slightly Higher

10 Year Treasury Yield closes at 3.40

10/16                     Slightly Higher                         Slightly Higher                     Slightly Higher                                 

10 Year Treasury Yield closes at 3.42

RATE FORECAST

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged?

Industry experts and analysts provide their insights.

8% of respondents expect rates to fall in the coming weeks

67% predict a further increase in mortgage rates while the remaining

25% forecast that mortgage rates will remain more or less unchanged

As always many thanks to Paul Soule from Coldwell Banker Home Loans for providing these statistics.

I am very pleased to see the parent company that I work with supporting this legislation. The proposed extension for this tax credit will serve to further enhance the recovery of the real estate market, in addition to being a wonderful incentive to many Americans to experience the joys of home ownership.

PARSIPPANY, N.J., September 17, 2009 – Realogy Corporation, a global provider of real estate and relocation services, today announced its support of a bi-partisan Senate bill (S. 1678) introduced last night that would create a six-month extension of the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers and move the current expiration date forward to June 1, 2010.

“This is an important next step for maintaining positive momentum toward a recovery in the housing markets and the overall U.S. economy,” said Realogy President & CEO Richard A. Smith, who also serves as chair of the Business Roundtable’s Housing Working Group. “While we applaud this effort and support passage of this prudent and necessary legislation, we also want to make it clear that we will continue to work with Congress to broaden the scope of the credit.

“Specifically, Realogy supports expanding the existing first-time homebuyer tax credit to all homebuyers of a principal residence, increasing the size of the tax credit, and eliminating the existing income eligibility caps, all of which we believe are critical to the ‘move-up’ or repeat buyers who we expect will drive the essential second phase of a housing recovery.

We believe that stimulating demand for housing – particularly in the repeat buyer or ‘move-up’ market – is the most effective way for Congress to truly accelerate a broader economic recovery,” said Smith.

The bill was introduced last night by U.S. Senator Benjamin L. Cardin (D-MD), along with Senators John Ensign (R-NV), Harry Reid (D-NV), Johnny Isakson (R-GA) and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). The current tax credit provision for first-time homebuyers, passed as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, expires December 1, 2009. According to the most recent data from the Department of the Treasury, nearly 530,000 Americans have applied for the tax cut to help them purchase their first home. About 40 percent of all homebuyers this year will be eligible for the tax credit.

Kuddos to Senator Cardin, Senator Ensign, Senator Reid, Senator Isakson and Senator Stabenow and Realogy Corporation for their support of this very important piece of legislation.

Interest rates…everybody wants to know where they are headed. Here’s what’s coming out this week that will definitely have an impact.

The Fed’s Beige Book – officially known as the Survey on Current Economic Conditions will be reported on Wednesday. It shows info from banks, interviews with business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book is thought by some to be looking in the rearview mirror too much, but it can serve as a future indicator of the Fed’s policy decisions.

This Thursday, the Initial Jobless Claims report will be released. Last week, the number filing for jobless benefits fell, even though it was still higher then previous estimates. Markets will be watching to see if this report hits expectations of approximately 556,000 new claims.

Also on Thursday, the Balance of Trade for July will be reported. The expectations are that the trade deficit will come in the same as the previous month when it widened to $27 Billion. A negative balance of trade (deficit) occurs when imports surpass exports. The United States trade balance has been in a deficit since the mid 1970’s.

Lastly, on Friday, the Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index will come out. This is a survey conducted by the University of Michigan and measures consumer attitudes regarding the present and future economic conditions.

The biggest factor this week is treasury auctions as the release and sale of Government Bonds can affect Mortgage Bonds, which can alter our interest rates. It’s good to keep your eye on Treasuries and stocks this week as an excellent indicator of what rates will do.

As always, many thanks to Paul Soule, a Senior Mortgage Advisor with Coldwell Banker Home Loans.

WBOC TV News Channel 16 located in Salisbury, Maryland reported this information earlier today. I find it very encouraging that there are signs of new life in our economy. Everyone has been hard hit. Beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel will further propel our national economy towards more prosperous times.

The U.S. housing market has started to recover from the most far-reaching crisis since the Great Depression, data released Thursday show.

Sales of previously occupied homes rose for the third month in a row in June, the National Association of REALTORS reported. That hasn’t happened since early 2004, during the boom.

“The turnaround in the housing market appears finally to be here and indeed may be gaining some speed,” wrote Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc.

Stocks jumped on the news, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising above 9,000 for the first time since early January.

Home sales rose 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million last month, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May. Sales were up in all four regions of the country.

It was the highest level of sales since last October and beat economists’ expectations. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 4.84 million units, according to Thomson Reuters.

In another encouraging sign, the share of foreclosures on the market is shrinking. About one out of three homes sold in June was foreclosure-related, down from nearly half earlier this year.

And the glut of homes up for sale dwindled to 3.8 million. That’s a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace and another important sign of a recovery. When the market balances at a 7-month supply prices should begin to stabilize, the REALTOR’S group said.

That probably won’t happen until next year because of a backlog of foreclosures that have yet to come on to the market. The median sales price was $181,800 in June, down 15 percent from year-ago levels but up slightly from $174,700 in May.

Nevertheless, prices have risen for three straight months in about half of the 55 major metropolitan areas tracked by the Associated Press-Re/Max Housing Report, also released Thursday.